2006 AFC Pre-Draft Player Rankings

QB Rankings

1. Tom Brady
It may have been a down year for the New England Patriots, but it was far from that for Tom Brady. In 2005, Tom not only lead the NFL in passing yards, he threw his way to 2nd overall in scoring in Keeper's Fantasy Football League...going for 27.2 points per game over his 15 week fantasy football season. Only two other players in the entire league scored more than 25 points per game...Carson Palmer going for 29.8 per game and Peyton Manning going for 26.8 per game. This year the Patriots have a slighly softer schedule and the defense is still far from the powerhouse they were just a year or 2 ago. To us, all this adds up to another prosperous year for this future Hall of Famer.
Outlook:
After averaging 21.96 in 2003…23.26 in 2004…and 27.18 in 2005...You should feel quite comfortabe counting on him for 24-27 points per game in 2006...

2. Drew Bledsoe
In 2005, Drew came in #7 overall in the league...scoring 339 points (22.6 per game) over the 15 weeks. Going into 2006, Dallas has not only added probably the best wide receiver in the game (when he's on the field of course), they have also added 2 veteran offensive linemen through free-agency. Everything looks good at the moment, but we have all seen what can happen to a team when someone like T.O. is added. In the end, though, Parcells should really be able to make things work for at least one year...
Outlook:
Injury and T.O. blowing himself up and off the field completely might be the only 2 things standing in the way of another Top 7 finish for Drew. If things go well, look for him to put up 23-26 points per game in 2006. If T.O. gets the boot, expect him to fall into the 19-22 per game range...

3. Jake Delhomme
Jake ended 2005 as the #12 quarter back scoring 304 points (20.3 per game) in his 15 games. Since then, the Panthers have adressed the #1 and #2 offensive needs. First, they have added a valuable possession receiver into the mix in Keyshawn Johnson. This alone should make things much easier on Jake as Keary "I dropped 21 balls in just 6 games" Colbert was only able to haul in 23 catches for 271 yards from that spot all of last season. And to address their #2 need, they used their 1st round pick on a running back to add depth at another important position...this should help insure Jake has more time to find his receivers again this year, just like he did back in 2004.
Outlook:
After being up in 2004 with 25.27 per game, and down in 2005 with 20.3 per game, we see Jake heading back up in 2006. Barring injuries, he should be a lock for 22-25 per game this year.

4. Jake Plummer
Jake #1 or Jake #2? This Jake ended 2005 one spot above the above Jake…finishing as the #11 QB in the league scoring 331 points (22.1 per game). The Broncos have first improved their WR corps by adding Javon Walker on draft day. And while they did lose Mike Anderson to the Ravens, they apparently felt Tatum Bell and Ron Dayne were ready to carry the load. The Offense again looks strong going into the season…and while his days in Denver might be numbered with Cutler coming in, this Jake has been one of the most consistent performers over the past few years.
Outlook:
Consistency…scored 22.6 per game in 2003…and 24.2 per game in 2004…and 22.1 per game in 2005…it would seem the battle of Jake's is on and another 22-25 is headed this way…

5. Drew Brees
In 2004, Drew cracked the Top 10 Quarter Backs for the first time in the league with 25.1 points per game. He then followed that performance with 24.4 per game in 2005 finishing as the #5 Quarter Back overall. But this year it's a new team for a new quarterback for a new town…Drew's move to New Orleans means losing maybe the best running back AND the best tight end in the league. Lucky for him he gets to throw to the WR who lead all but one wideout in Keepers' League scoring in 2004…and he gets a rookie running back that will catch a lot of balls and has already been compared to Ladanian on more than one occasion. Deuce also comes back and Stallworth finally cracked the Top 20 Wide Receivers in scoring last year. All these things point to another high-powered offense for Drew to run…once everyone gets acquainted that is…
Outlook:
Expect his numbers to be somewhat modest early in the season…especially since he is coming off a shoulder injury…but he might be just what the doctor ordered for a late season Championship run. Think 18-21 over the first 6 or 8…then he should quickly migrate back towards that 22-25 level.

6. Brett Favre
In 2005…the worst year of his HOF career…Brett rings in with another Top 10 Quarter Back performance by scoring 22.1 a game. He is getting old and this truly may be his last year, but he doesn't miss many games, and still puts up numbers.
Outlook:
Scored 25.2 in 2003…27.9 in 2004…and 22.1 in 2005 with his whole team hurt. It is hard to imagine him dipping below that number…Brett should again fall into the 22-25 points per game range…

7. Kurt Warner
This 2-time MVP plays in a pass-happy offense with 2 of the best young wide receivers in the game. They also just got a running game in Edgerrin James via free agency. And while the addition of Edge may take away from the overall passing numbers, that should make passing easier closer to the endzone yielding passing more TD's. And while his days may be numbered…and he hasn't lasted a full season in 3 years…in 2005, he did average 24.6 points over the 10 games he was able to play.
Outlook:
Top 10 production per game. That makes one more old-timer scoring 22-25 points per game…for however long he lasts anyway.

8. Steve McNair
Since putting up 26.1 points per game in 2003, Steve has been flying under the radar due to his injury riddled 2004 season…but proved again last year that even when injured, he can put up numbers…scoring 22.1 points per game while missing only a single game. This year he moves to a new team and a new run-first offense…but in that he is reunited with his long-time #1 wide receiver…Derrick Mason. He also inherits the services of an extremely gifted tight end in Todd Heap. They will never lead the league in scoring, but should be much more balanced this year.
Outlook:
The veteran should be able to pick up the new offense rather quickly…after that it should be more about fine-tuning and timing. Look for 19-21 early growing to 21-24 later in the year.

9. Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben averaged 21.9 points in 11 games in 2005 to go along with his Super Bowl Ring. He also showed a level of consistency by scoring over 20 points in 5 of his first 6 games. In 2006, Pittsburg enters the season without the Bus, but really they enter with much the same team….and you should expect similar numbers from Ben. He is young and a winner and might even be a smart long term prospect at this point in time. His numbers should at least continue to gradually rise…and a few years from now, the numbers might jump significantly as the defense ages or for some other reason softens…
Outlook:
All word since his accident says Big Ben should be fine this year….and if that holds true, you can readily expect 20-23 per game.

10. Michael Vick
Because of his running ability and production, he has always been considered a consistent quarterback week-to-week with huge upside…although injury prone. Unfortunately, he has consistently been a below average performer…producing middle of the road numbers…18.3 per game in 2004…and 20.4 in 2005. Vick receives no help other than one more year of Father Time on the wide receiver side. Physically, he has always been the most gifted quarter back in the league…we just keep waiting for something to click…
Outlook:
While in past years he has been no better than a fun to watch bye week filler, it would seem his numbers may finally be ready to climb into the Top 15….if they are ever going to. When he is on the field this year, you should expect low/moderate growth resulting in 19-22 points per game…and a coin-flip shot at the Top 15…

Courtesy of Operation Domination

RB Rankings

1. Reggie Bush (Rookie)
More upside than anyone in town is the popular opinion. Although, in 2 college seasons he scored 8 and 15 touchdowns while his teammate LenDale White scored almost twice as many with 17 and 26. Similarly, Bush comes to a team with a bruising pro bowl caliber running back made for the redzone, albeit in his first year back after a major injury. Bush has always been most effective in the open field and will most likely be utilized in the slot as well out of the backfield…may even spend some time returning kicks. This year, 15 touches a game should get him into double digits…the crazies expect 30 or 35 which might get him to the Ladanian level or better...the crystal ball say's he will end up with numbers more like Westbrook...next year.
Outlook:
Smart money says Deuce leads the Saint's in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns this year, although catches and yards should keep Bush scoring consistently. Expect Bush to put up a consistent 10-12 points with his 13-16 touches per game.

2. Tatum Bell
With Mike Anderson gone, the door is wide open for this former 2nd round pick to show more of those flashes he showed in 2005. Some of those flashes came when he scored over 18 points 3 times in a 4 game mid-season stretch. To put that into perspective, the #8 Running Back overall last year averaged only 10.8 points per game on the season while going the first 9 games of the season without scoring over 18 one single time. Bell has decent size at 5'11" 213 and has breakaway speed (4.34 40). He also had a catch in 11 of 15 games last year in a limited role…so look for more of that this year. He also has that dependable Denver line to run behind when he gets the ball…but how often he gets the ball may be the biggest question mark at this point.
Outlook:
Expect a somewhat shared backfield and consistent touches for Bell…in the neighborhood of 15-18 total touches per game…with that he should be able to secure an 11-13 point average…and would only be a few breakaway runs from cracking the Top 10.

3. Droughns, Reuben
Reuben is a good sized back that, barring injury, will get the bulk of the workload in 2006. While coming in #17 for Running Backs in 2005, Reuben was a model of consistency by scoring over 7.9 points in 11 of his 15 games. Compare that to the #8 running back who only accomplished that feat 8 times, and the #10 RB only 9 times. The Browns will also be getting back a few young talented receivers in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow which should also help spread the field and give him more room to run like back in 2004 when he averaged 14 points over his last 11 games.
Outlook:
Here you have a solid back…getting most of the work…playing for a seemingly improved team. Expect him to improve by 2-4 points on last year's 9 point average to score 11-13 while providing better than average consistency in numbers.

4. Jamal Lewis
In 2005, both injury and off-the-field problems reared their ugly heads for Lewis, who ended up having the most disappointing season of his career. Lewis averaged only 7 points per game was able to score more than 8 points only 4 times in his 14 games…he also failed to rush for more than 1,000 yards in a season for the first time. Many think being one year removed from the physical and legal problems, along with the arrival of McNair and a more balanced attack should provide the setting for a nice rebound.
Outlook:
Not being a pass catcher hurts him, but he has the added motivation of playing his way through a one year contract…expect Jamal to put up numbers similar to those he put up in the first 5 games of 2004…the last time he was really looking healthy. In those 5 games he averaged 11.6 points per game and scored more than 8 in all but one of them.

5. Chester Taylor
Having rushed for 100 yards in a game only twice in 5 years, Chester comes to the Vikings with the chance to run behind a revamped offensive line. He has been injured in limited duty in the past so that is a concern, but showed last year that if healthy and given the chance he could be an effective back. He also caught 3 or more passes in 8 of his 15 games which should help make him a more consistent scorer.
Outlook:
With Mewelde Moore still to deal with…and the possibility of a goalline back (Ciatrick Fason scored 4 goalline touchdowns in the final 9 games last year), there is obvious risk. But given a good share of the load, Chester has the ability to be a productive back this year. Expect his average to creep into double digits along with what should be better than average consistency.

6. Corey Dillon
In 2005, one year after a Top 10 Running Backs finish, Dillon missed 3 games due to injury, but was still able to come in at #13. In the 12 games he did play, he scored in double digits 9 times while averaging 12.5 points per game. It was also his second consecutive year scoring 13 touchdowns. But at age 33 his days are numbered, especially given the fact that the Patriots spent their 1st round pick on the second RB taken in the draft.
Outlook:
In the end, as long as Tom Brady is on the field whoever is in the game at running back will be scoring points for the Pat's. Expect Dillon's yards per game to remain lower than normal in an effort to keep him fresh this year. This should put him in the position to score 10+ touchdowns for the 3rd consecutive year and put him in the 9-11 points per game range.

7. Joseph Addai (Rookie)
Even though he was considered a 3rd down back by many going into the draft, Addai is looking like the rookie slated to get the most playing time in his inaugural campaign. Rookies normally garner a lot of attention, especially when drafted by an offensive powerhouse, but in this case it might work both ways in year one because of the quarterback. Blocking schemes normally take rookie running backs a good while to absorb and we know Peyton Manning will not be left unprotected. On this rookie running back's side, though, is a situation where the #6 running back in the league just left via free agency and each of the next 2 backs on the depth chart have a history of injury. If things go right, this rookie may soon be getting significant playing time for one of the most prolific offenses over the last 5 years.
Outlook:
Expecting more than 60% of the running back touches and double digit points in this rookie's first year might be asking just a bit too much. Caddy could only muster 9.7 points per game in his rookie campaign even though he rushed for over 1,000 yards.

8. Warrick Dunn
Dunn has been a Top 20 back each of the past 2 years…and barely…having played in all 32 games. He is not about upside but simply about serviceability. He continues to be a #2 on his better days…and a # 3 most days…
Outlook:
He was the #17 running back in 2004 and #14 and 2005…scoring 9.8 and 9.6 points per game respectively. With a little tougher schedule this year, expect another average just south of double digits.

9. Ahman Green
Will we see another Garrison Hearst or another Jamal Anderson return? Green is coming off a major injury and is now almost 30. While there probably isn't a ton left in the tank…being healthy and rested with a focus on passes in the flat (3 catches per game average over the last 3 years) might allow Green to make a legitimate difference for someone this year.
Outlook:
Odds are he is used somewhat sparingly to maintain freshness with a fair number of dump-offs in the flat so he can get out of bounds…with Davenport getting most of the goalline carries. While he still has the potential for double digits, the safer bet this year might be back-up and bye week filler who should score 7-9 per game with decent consistency.

10. Thomas Jones
Jones, much like Green, should see his role reduced a bit this year, especially as they get closer to the endzone. Benson is a very good inside runner and a high draft pick that should be ready to start getting in the endzone. The positive thing here is that Jones will most likely remain the pass catching back.
Outlook:
He had to work extremely hard last year to play in 14 of the 15 games on the fantasy schedule…but was able to average a solid 11.6 per game. This year you can expect more of his points to come early in the season…and his average to fall below that 10 point Mendoza by seasons end.

Honorable Mention - Frank Gore
Gore looks to be the starter for arguably the worst team in football. They have inexperience at every position, and will likely utilize a short passing game to help out. He should, however, be healthier than he's been in years…so there is hope and some upside. A strong finish last year long with a soft early schedule this year should lock in Gore as the starter, although he will not have enough red zone opportunities to thrive.
Outlook:
Assuming he can stay healthy…expect Gore to approach a 9-10 point average…while being less than consistent.

Courtesy of Operation Domination

WR Rankings

1. Joe Horn
After averaging 13.5 points per game in 2003, Horn lead all but one receiver in 2004, averaging 15.5 points per game. His 2005 season was marred by injury…not only to him…but to more than a few on the team. And due to the hurricane, the Saints were also a team without a home for quite a good while. A healthy Horn along with the additions of Brees, Bush, and a returning McAllister should spread the field nicely and help get his numbers back closer to where they have historically been…having a few home games this year might also help.
Outlook:
He may only have a few years left, but look for Horn to get back to business in 2006 returning to double digits and a 12.5-14.5 point per game average.

2. Donald Driver
He averaged 13.9 per game and cracked the Top 10 Wide Receivers in 2004. In 2005, he averaged 11.8 and just missed the Top 10 Wide Receivers with an 11th place finish. The following 3 things should work to Drivers advantage this year…Favre is back for at least one more year…Walker was shipped to Denver…and their 2 best running backs return.
Outlook:
Look for Driver to put up similar numbers to those he put up in 2004 and 2005, as he is again the #1 Wide Receiver in Green Bay. Being Favre's favorite target, you can expect another finish in the 12-14 range…which would put him on the doorstep of the Top 10 again this year.

3. Plaxico Burress
In 2005, his sixth year in the league but his first year with a new team…and with a very young quarterback throwing to him…Burress finally broke out a bit and finished as the #12 overall WR in the league while averaging 11.2 points per game. Another year in the offense and a more mature Manning give hope for an even more prosperous 2006.
Outlook:
Good hands and large frame help him score in the red zone. "How consistent can he be?" is probably the biggest question right now…Expect another finish in the 11.5-13.5 range…which would put him on the doorstep of the Top 10 once again.

4. Santana Moss
After averaging 12.7 in 2003 he sunk to 8.5 in 2004. Moss started the 2005 season incredibly hot and finishing as the #7 wide receiver with a 14.5 points per game average. He scored in double digits in 5 of his first 6 games (19.5 avg over the 6)…defenses then caught on a bit and he was only able to score in double digits in 3 of his last 9 games (11.1 avg over those 9).
Outlook:
Expect the additions of Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El to help balance things out 2 ways this year. One Way: Having other capable receivers on the field will ease up the coverage on Moss making throws to him a bit easier. Second Way: Having other capable receivers on the field means fewer balls thrown Santana's way. Expect more balance and levels similar to those in 2003 or 2005…making it another year of 11-13 points per game with some homerun weeks for this speedster…

5. Andre Johnson
A player with seemingly good upside due to his physical tools….but one who also plays for a team bad enough to have just had the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft. After coming out in 2003 and putting up 9.3 per game, Johnson stepped it up as the #18 WR in 2004 finishing with a 12.0 point per game average. In 2005, everyone expected him to step it up again... it being his third year...but between injury problems that cost him 3 games...and larger team offensive problems...he disappointed closing the year with a 9.4 average in the 12 games he was able to play.
Outlook:
Carries a bit more risk than those above. He seems to have all the tools to be a Top 10 WR, but plays for a team that has issues beyond being more focused on defense than offense. If he can stay healthy, expect him to be back to his 2004 scoring form…averaging 10.5-12.5 a game…and depending on numerous other team factors, it could possibly be even higher.

6. Javon Walker
After coming out in 2003 and putting up 8.4 per game, in his second season Walker cracked the Top 5 putting up 15.2 a game. This off-season he was dealt to the Broncos in exchange for a second round pick and then in May, agreed to a new six-year contract with the Broncos. With almost a full year of recover time since his torn ACL, he is expected to be ready for the start of training camp, but Javon would not rank this high based solely on expected point production in 2006...2007 should be his year…
Outlook:
Significant time will be needed for Walker to find rhythm with his new teammates…but more for him to truly get back to 100%. If he can avoid setbacks, look for Walker to make gradual progress this year and finish with a 9.5-11.5 point average...with possibly a few bigger games late...

7. Deion Branch
Branch has the luxury of being the favorite receiver of one of the best Quarterbacks in the league. In the last 3 seasons Branch has showed steady improvement by scoring 7.8 in 14 games played in 2003, 9.1 in 8 games played 2004, and 10.1 in 15 games in 2005. Givens, the #2 receiver from last year has left so Branch should have plenty of opportunities in 2006.
Outlook:
Even though coverage could be focused a bit more on him, Branch will be targeted early and often this year. Look for the marked improvement to continue as he puts up 10-12 per game.

8. Lee Evans
The model of inconsistency… in 2004 he went the first 10 games without a double digit showing....then he had double digits in each of the next 5 games to finish out the fantasy season. He averaged 19.3 in those 5 games but only 9.8 for the season. In a disappointing 2005, he again started slowly with no double digit showings in the first 6 games. He was able to gain some rhythm in the last 9 games posting double digits 4 times with an average of 11.8 over those 9 games, although, he finished 2005 with only an 8.8 average.
Outlook:
A riskier pick than Branch for sure…but with maybe a bit more upside…More time with Losman and becoming the #1 should benefit his numbers…as he should be targeted more consistently this year. Look for Evans to step it up in 2006 and post a solid 10-12 per game…

9. Eddie Kennison
Eddie has posted Top 20 finishes in each of the last two seasons scoring 13.3 in 2004 and 10.0 in 2005. With defenses keying on the running game again in 2006, there should be plenty of room to run for the Kansas City receivers.
Outlook:
Expect Eddie to post solid numbers again this year in the 10-12 range.

10. Rod Smith
Rod has proven to be one of the most consistent performers posting Top 20 finishes in each of his last 3 seasons…scoring 10.4 in 2003, 11.5 in 2004, and 11.8 in 2005. Walker has been brought in to replace him, but that won't fully happen until next year.
Outlook:
This is expected to be his last year in this position, but expect another solid year of 9.5-11.5 points per game.

Honorable Mention - Muhsin Muhammad
In 2005, only one year after leading all wide receivers with 17.1 per game, in his first year with his new Bears team, Muhsin ended his campaign with only an 8.4 per game average. Given another year in the system and with an at least marginally better quarterback situation, signs are pointing to an increase in production. And as always, the millions dollar question will be by how much.
Outlook:
Expect only marginally better production this year…something in the neighborhood of 9-11 per game.

Courtesy of Operation Domination

TE Rankings

1. Jeremy Shockey
Shockey has been a Top 5 Tight end performer in each of the last 3 years scoring 9.8 per game in 2003, 8.7 per game in 2004,and 11.0 per game in 2005. He also has a very young and talented quarterback in Eli Manning who is just getting his legs under him.
Outlook:
Look for more production in 2006 as Eli matures…expect him to post 11-13 points per game.

2. Todd Heap
When healthy, Todd has been a consistent performer finishing 2003 as the #2 tight end scoring 8.0 points per game. He was injured and only played in 6 games in 2004, but still averaged 10.0 points in those games. In 2005, he was healthy and again finished in the Top 3 Tight Ends scoring 10.5 points per game.
Outlook:
Most think McNair's arrival can do nothing but help…and they should…expect him to go for 10.5-12.5 points per game.

3. Alge Crumpler
Alge was a Top 10 performer in 2004 scoring 9.0 per game…he then cracked the Top 5 in 2005 scoring 9.3 per game. He has been Vick's safety valve and will continue to be as long as he is in the game.
Outlook:
Look for more of the same this year as Alge rungs in with another solid year of 9-11 per game.

4. Randy McMichael
Randy has been decent each of the last years coming in at #6 in 2003 scoring 5.9, #5 in 2004 scoring 9.1 per game and #7 in 2005 scoring 7.4 per game. He has Culpepper coming in who has historically loved the tight end so he should have plenty of opportunities this year.
Outlook:
Look for Randy to have one of his best years in 2006…he should reach 9-11 points per game quite regularily.

5. Chris Cooley
In his first year Cooley came in #11 scoring 5.2 per game…and then cracked the Top 5 in 2005 scoring 9.8 per game. There seems to be no reason when the team is getting more comfortable why this growth won't continue. On top of that, the Redskins also add two more capable receivers this year in Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El to help keep the field spread and Cooley running open underneath.
Outlook:
Look for Cooley to remain in high harmony and turn in another solid season of 9-11 points per game.

6. Vernon Davis (Rookie)
This rookie has incredible speed and power and fairly good hands to boot. He goes to probably the worst team in football with a former #1 overall quarterback in his second year. He should be the safety valve…and in that get a good number of opportunities.
Outlook:
Has all the tools to be a special player…look for Top 5 numbers...9-11 per game...or bust.

7. LJ Smith
LJ has been a Top 12 Tight End each of the past 2 seasons scoring 5.3 per game in 2004 and 7.2 in 2005. Assuming they can stay healthy this year, the Eagles should be relying on him quite heavily with the unproven receiver talent.
Outlook:
Has a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback and with a lack of receiver talent. This should bode especially well for his touchdown numbers. Look for a strong showing and 8-10 per game.

8. Heath Miller
In his rookie season he put up 6.2 per game and played for the Super Bowl Champions…with one of the best young quarterbacks in the game, and a year under his belts, there is no reason to think the production won't be headed at least moderately upwards.
Outlook:
Look for the redzone opportunities to continue to make him a serviceable option for some team each week. Expect moderate growth yielding 6.5-8.5 points per week.

9. Ben Troupe
Physically gifted young tight end should be ready to take on more of the load this year…even when splitting time in 2005 he was able to crack the Top 10 Tight Ends with 6.7 per game. Volek is a solid starting quarterback and should Vince get onto the field, he would be relied on even more heavily.
Outlook:
His numbers should be at least comparable to those in 2005. Look for 6-8 with a little shot of upside.

10. Kellen Winslow
This former 1st round pick with great genes returns from multiple severe injuries…Hopefully this is the year we get to see him settle into his career. The questions will be how much the injuries have cost him….and how good was he in the first place.
Outlook:
A risky pick with upside…he will be a shot at value for one team or another…even if only at backup…with hope for 7-9 per game…

Courtesy of Operation Domination

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